更新时间:2025-08-07 14:28:34
FromTheEconomistprintedition
Whyarepricessoaring?
猪肉价格为何飞涨?
WHILEmanyChina-watchersfretabouttheconsequencesofacollapseofChina'sstockmarket,WenJiabao,theprimeminister,seemsmoreworriedabouttheriskofsocialunrestasaresultoftherocketingpriceofpork.A50%riseintheaveragenationwidepriceoverthepastyeariscausingsquealsofalarm.LastweekMrWenwentsofarastovisitafarmtoshowheistakingtheissueseriously.
正当众多中国观察家为中国股市崩盘的后果不堪设想而忧心忡忡之时,温家宝总理却似乎更担心暴涨的猪肉价格可能会造成社会不稳定。过去一年全国平均肉价50%的增长引起了恐慌。上周,温先生甚至视察了一家农场,以此表明他对这一问题非常重视。
MrWenpromisedthatthegovernmentwouldacttoensureadequatesuppliesofpork;ifnecessary,tostabilisepricesitcanreleasestocksfromitsstrategicreservesofbothfrozenporkandlivepigs.PorkisChina'sstaplemeat.TheaveragepersoneatsmoreporkthaninanycountryotherthanGermany.Butitaccountsforalmost4%ofChina'sconsumer-pricebasket,againstlessthan1%inGermany.RisingporkpricescouldthereforepushupChina'sinflationrateovercomingmonths.JimingHa,chiefeconomistatChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation,estimatesthatinflationwillriseto3.4%inMay,from3%inApril.
温先生承诺,政府会采取行动,确保猪肉的足量供应;如果必要,政府还可动用冻猪肉和生猪的战略储备来稳定肉价。猪肉是中国的主要肉食品,一般人的猪肉消费量比除德国外的任何一个国家都要多。但与德国不到1%相比,猪肉在中国占菜篮子总价近4%,。因此,未来几个月里,上涨的猪肉价格会推动中国通胀率的上升。中国国际金融有限公司的首席经济学家JimingHa估计,通货膨胀将从4月份的3%升至5月份的3.4%。
Economistsarescratchingtheirheadstoexplainthepricejump.Someblameitonblue-ear,acontagiousdiseasewhichmayhavekilled18,000or20mpigs,dependingonwhomyoubelieve.Otherssaythemaincauseisthesurgeinglobalgrainprices,whichhaveincreasedthecostoffeedforpigs.ItisnotonlytheChinesewhoarepayingmorefortheirpork.CapitalEconomics,aLondon-basedeconomicsfirm,pointsoutthatAmericanporkpriceshavealsojumpedbymorethan50%overthepastyear.
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